Feb. 3, 2008, 11:09PM
CAMPAIGN 2008
Latino vote is the ticket for Super Tuesday
Obama chases Clinton's lead among Hispanics in key primaries
By BENNETT ROTH
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON — Hillary Rodham Clinton is banking on her longtime ties to the Hispanic community to give her an edge as she heads into the Super Tuesday primaries that include a slew of Latino-rich states.
Experts say Hispanics, especially older ones, favor Clinton over Barack Obama because of their familiarity with both Bill and Hillary Clinton, who as a Yale Law student in 1972 came to South Texas to help register voters.
Obama has been making inroads among younger Hispanics with his message of change. But experts in the Hispanic community have raised the delicate issue that some in their community may not back Obama, whose father was black, because of tensions with blacks.
In California — the biggest prize in Tuesday's primaries, which also include New York, New Jersey, Arizona, New Mexico and more than a dozen other states — the Field Poll released Sunday found Clinton getting 52 percent of likely Hispanic voters, compared with 19 percent for Obama. Some 2,075 Democratic delegates will be selected on Tuesday, but neither Clinton nor Obama is expected to go over the top. A candidate for president needs 2,025 to win the Democrats' nomination.
In Florida and Nevada, states with large Hispanic populations that have held primary contests, Clinton captured a substantial chunk of the Latino vote. She has 261 delegates, according to an Associated Press count. Obama has 190.
The drive for Hispanic votes is greater among Democrats than Republicans, who have lost support among Latinos because of their opposition to changes in immigration law policy.
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With Obama doing well with some others in the Democratic base, including young people and black voters, Clinton has been trying to maximize her support among Hispanics. Her campaign is running TV and radio spots in Spanish in several states.
Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said Hispanics make up one-fifth to one-fourth of the Democratic primary electorate in California.
"So far, she's enjoyed a substantial advantage among Latinos," Pitney said. "She needs to hold onto it in case Obama makes further gains among white voters."
Andy Hernandez, a political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio, noted that Clinton has recruited prominent Hispanic leaders, including former San Antonio mayor and housing secretary, Henry Cisneros, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
Hernandez said the explanation for why Hispanics tend to favor Clinton is "they know her and like her better."
But Obama has worked to beef up his visibility, running Spanish language ads in California, Arizona and New Mexico. He has the endorsement of Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., whose family is revered by many older Hispanics. Kennedy is stumping for Obama in the Latino community.
There also is some indication that Obama is making inroads among younger Hispanics.
A poll released Friday concluded that Obama's standing had improved in Texas, in part because many Latinos under 40 now favor the Illinois senator over Clinton.
Jerry Polinard, a professor at the University of Texas Pan-American in Edinburg, said he has picked up at the overwhelmingly Hispanic, 17,000-student campus "an energy about the Obama campaign that is fairly unusual."
He said the Kennedy endorsement could help Obama with older Hispanics, who he said "have two pictures in their living room — one of the pope and the other of John F. Kennedy."
On the issues of particular relevance to Hispanics, such as immigration policy, Obama and Clinton have largely agreed. Both support a comprehensive plan that would create a guest worker program for undocumented immigrants and provide them with a pathway to citizenship. Obama, however, has gone further. He would allow illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, a privilege that Clinton has said she would not grant right now.
The ambivalence toward Obama, particularly among older Hispanic voters, may be rooted in friction between blacks and Hispanics, according to some activists in the Latino community.
Racial tensions in the past
Marc Campos, a Houston-based Democratic consultant, said that while "folks don't want to talk about it," some of those racial tensions played out in the 1997 Houston mayoral election.
Although the election was nonpartisan, it featured Lee Brown, a well-known black Democrat and former Clinton administration official who was running against Rob Mosbacher Jr., who has been active in GOP politics. Mosbacher got about 45 percent of the Hispanic vote, even though the community traditionally had supported Democrats.
More recently, Sergio Bendixen, a pollster working with the Clinton campaign, caused a stir when he was quoted in a New Yorker article saying, "The Hispanic voter — and I want to say this very carefully — has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates."
Other Hispanic leaders reject the notion that Hispanics won't vote for a black candidate.
"I just don't see documentation to support this," said Juan Garcia, a state representative from Corpus Christi who supports Obama.
He predicted that Obama will increase his popularity among Hispanics as he campaigns in the community more.
Guy Cecil, Clinton's national field director, responded that Hispanic support for the senator is largely based "on her record and the president's (Clinton) record."
Nestor Rodriguez, a sociologist at the University of Houston, said there had been tensions between blacks and Hispanics in areas where there is competition for resources and jobs. But he said that doesn't mean all Hispanics would vote against Obama.
bennett.roth@chron.com
comments to Chronicle article:
jharrell3623 wrote:
Ya know , I have no idea how any of you can say that this Political Debate is over Race issues. To do that alone in fact makes you racist to begin with. It SHOULD be about What they will attempt to do while in office to benefit Americans. Not Blacks , Whites , Latinos , or any other race. After all its those Americans who will decide who wins in all of this. Oh and for those of you who think that Obama is a better choice because he knows what minorities have went through and Hillary does not? I got news for ya , Women are Minorities as well so Unless you plan to better reinstate your argument then I suggest its best for you to say nothing at all. Far as the Illegal Alien issue , sure , most Latinos and other Races were naturally born here in the US. Thats because 30 years ago your parents who were illegal ran across the border while your mother was pregnant and I guess just because they managed to stay in the states long enough to have a child while being IA's , that somehow made them Americans also? I mean , there is a lot of that , that went on long ago. Maybe they just could have claimed Asylum , there ya go , A instant out. Much like Germans , and other foreigners who marry to gain citizenship in the US. All of that is rediculous. I mean think about it , What SHOULD make a US citizen , a US citizen. I mean aren't we very lax about the qualifications. What test determine Citizenship? Can all citizen's that were IA's speak American English or hell , how about Old English? Can they write in English? Do they know what the Constitution is? Can they cite at least 2 Phrases word for word from the Constitution? Do they know how our tax system works? Do they know how our law system works? Do they know the structure of our government? I mean , these are the very things that should allow a IA citizenship.
2/4/2008 10:25 AM CST
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onevoice2bheard wrote:
Not a whole lot of real intelligent thoughts being expressed in these blogs - primarily hate and foolishness. It's interesting how republican bloggers keep bashing democrats as illegal sympathizers. Recall that in the not too distant past we had a political landscape where the current republican president had a republican congress and, while they were busy writing self-serving legislation, you didn’t hear a peep about illegal immigration. Did they seize this opportunity to curtail illegal immigration? For those of you still in denial, the answer is an overwhelming NO!
You really want to stop illegal immigration?? Go after the employers. (Note: That might mean you too if you ever hire help.) Raise fines and enforce the labor laws. Let those that break the law pay for enforcement of the law. No work, no illegal immigration. All this finger-pointing and phobia, fence-raising and Border Watch nonsense is great for politicking and the tabloid business, but bad for me and my tax dollars.
2/4/2008 10:03 AM CST
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desperado wrote:
This was all part of the Clinton strategy and the reason Bill made the statements he did in South Carolina. It was meant to divide the black and Hispanic voters along racial lines. Apparently it's working. Now tell me again, which party is it that plays the race card?
2/4/2008 6:11 AM CST
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Chrisinhouston wrote:
Can you guys not read an article or what? Not once did it say that Democrats were trying to get illegal aliens to vote. It was about Democrats appealling to Hispanic or Latino voters. REGISTERED VOTERS!!! US CITIZENS!!!
And as to the voter ID laws, those are laws looking for a crime that doesn't exist!!!
2/4/2008 7:22 AM CST
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eljefebob wrote:
dow said, "Are illegal muslims allowed to vote as well? yo know the ones that cross our southern border."
You know, they do make a medication for paranoia. That could help. Do you really think for a minute that an illegal would risk detection by REGISTERING TO VOTE? They're here trying to put food on their table. The last thing they want is to be detected.
Also, you make no distinction between hispanic and illegal immigrant. You and others use those terms interchangeably showing you make no such distinction. That's called racism.
2/4/2008 7:42 AM CST
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