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The Guardian - London
Saturday February 16 2008
International section
Last updated at 00:02 on February 16 2008.
Neither man has yet to secure his party's nomination, but Barack Obama and John McCain have begun to lay down the battle lines for a possible confrontation in November's presidential election.
McCain, all but certain to lead the Republican ticket, is starting to plot election strategy, aides say, and the senator from Arizona has made it clear he intends to fight Obama's main premise of his candidacy head-on.
"I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need," McCain said on Tuesday.
The Obama camp, meanwhile, has begun to mock McCain's main election vehicle: the Straight Talk Express, accusing the Republican of cleaving to the party line. "It looks like the wheels on the Straight Talk Express came off somewhere along the road to the Republican nomination," an Obama spokesman, Bill Burton, said.
Age vs Experience
At 71, McCain truly is old enough to be Obama's father. The senator from Illinois is 46. That might look like an obvious advantage to Obama in an election year dominated by talk of change. But Michael McDonald, an election specialist at George Mason University, cautions that McCain's age could help him. Older people are more reliable voters and people often vote for people like themselves.
Race could also be a factor in the campaign. "When you look at the primaries, in places like Alabama, Obama has won it with only a few whites crossing over - about 10% to 20%. He does better where whites are better educated, in places like Atlanta," McDonald said.
However, Stephen Hess of the Brookings Institution, suggests the demand for change by the electorate could trump demographic considerations.
Firing up the base
Obama's ability to energise voters is undeniable. On the campaign trail, his rallies have packed out sports stadiums, and primaries and caucuses across America have seen record turnouts in all age groups and demographics.
McCain, in contrast, has been a divisive figure within the Republican party because of his opposition to torture at Guantánamo, his advocacy for new immigration laws and campaign finance reform, and his wavering stand on tax cuts. He has had trouble winning over social conservatives.
That may ease. In recent days, McCain has been endorsed by a number of conservative figures.
The White House said yesterday that the first president George Bush would formally endorse McCain from Texas on Monday. But Obama, for now, appears to have the edge. "There is still a sense that Obama has this charismatic movement behind him and McCain doesn't have that much charisma," said Frederic Solop, director of the Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University.
Winning the centre ground
Obama has been winning over independent voters and even Republicans - or "Obamacans" as he calls them - in primary contests. McCain also appeals to independent voters because of his reputation as a maverick. But Obama is still tied down in the fight for the Democratic nomination. McCain, having virtually secured the nomination, can now focus on winning over centrist voters.
"Obama has to redefine himself in the general election," Solop said. "John McCain has the advantage going to the general election because he has a more moderate voice and is speaking more to the mainstream than Barack Obama."
However, McDonald argues that he ignores the deep unpopularity of the war in Iraq and McCain has pledged to keep US troops in Iraq as long as 100 years if the situation demands.
National security vs economy
An election fought on the economy would favour Obama. But what if an unforeseen event shifts America's political conversation - now focused on fears of a recession - to national security?
Republican operatives are already trying to frame the elections next November in terms of national security. That would help McCain, turning his age and experience into an unalloyed asset.
McCain's life experiences would fit well in an election fought on national security. He spent five years as a prisoner in Hanoi after being shot down in the Vietnam war. In Congress, he is the ranking Republican member of the Senate armed services committee. Obama has not served in the military and has no proven national security credentials.
Or as Nathan Sproul, a Republican strategist from McCain's home state of Arizona argues, Obama's message of hope and change will not play well if Americans feel their lives are in danger.
"In an age when people want to strap explosives on their body and kill us, I think most Americans ... will not be willing to accept that type of person as their commander-in-chief. His inexperience on all fronts is frankly stunning."
* guardian.co.uk © Guardian News and Media Limited 2008
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